For this week’s NFL Betting Tutorial, we’ll review matchup handicapping. We stress that this type of NFL handicapping strategy should be used in conjunction with other types, as there is a great deal of assumptions to be made throughout the process.

The big difference between matchup handicapping and statistical handicapping is that while statistics are focused on an entire team (such as team rushing offense or team passing defense), matchup handicapping is more focused on individual players or schemes.

We’ll take a look at Thursday night’s Pittsburgh vs. New England matchup to kick off the NFL Preseason as an example. While Tom Brady’s suspension being lifted has been the major storyline of not only this game, but the entire NFL this past week, the loss of running back Le’Veon Bell might have a bigger impact.

Pittsburgh the Big Favorite

Pittsburgh is heavily dependent offensively on their running attack. While Big Ben puts up very good passing numbers, that passing game is predicated on how well the rushing game performs. Many of Pittsburgh’s passing plays are used from play-action, or with the assumption that the defense will be playing with a run-first mentality (bringing linebackers and safeties up). Thus, Pittsburgh is the big favorite with several bookies giving them a large point spread lead.

At the beginning of the 2017 season, Pittsburgh started off the year 0-4 including 19 points scored) combined in their first two games. The major reason for the lack of scoring was the lack of a credible rushing threat. With Bell missing for this game, Pittsburgh is at a huge disadvantage.

Now let’s take a look at the other side of the ball. Tom Brady has had a ton of success passing the ball against Pittsburgh, throwing for more than 340 yards in four of the last six meetings. Clearly Brady is comfortable going up against the way Pittsburgh plays defense. While those numbers look good and bode well for another big game this Thursday, they don’t necessarily apply because the Steelers no longer run their defense through Dick LeBeau and the defensive schemes won’t necessarily be the same.

Assuming all of this is correct, New England looks to be the right play. But these are all based on assumptions. If Pittsburgh is able to consistently run the ball even without Bell on the field, then the Steelers passing game should be fine.

According to several Bookie Pay Per Head Reviews, the online sportsbooks list NE as a 6.5-point favorite.  Thus, this Thursday night, and even if the matchup handicapping approach favors the Pats to win, it doesn’t necessarily mean they will win by at least a touchdown.

There are advantages to matchup handicapping, however, especially when everything works out correctly. By finding something that can be exploited, it’s very easy to relate that same matchup advantage or disadvantage to future games.